2024 is a significant year for elections with over 60 countries having been to the polls or are going to the polls this year. The United States election on 5 November is without doubt the most consequential.

Polls of New Zealanders indicate a clear preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. Our opinions carry no weight at the American ballot box, but the election result will have a big influence on New Zealand's economic and security landscape.

The race is tight. At the time of writing, Harris maintains a slim (and diminishing) lead in national polls. However, the popular vote will not necessarily determine the outcome. The peculiarities of the electoral college system mean the real battle is over relatively small numbers of persuadable voters in a handful of swing states.

Trump has a history of confounding pollsters and pundits. Betting markets and forecast models have been swinging in his direction, injecting further uncertainty.

Arguably, the congressional races are just as important as the race for the Presidency. They will determine control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. It remains unclear which party will control these houses, and it is quite possible the next President’s party will not have control of either.

Despite the heated rhetoric and stark ideological contrasts between the candidates, the practical implications for New Zealand may be similar regardless of the winner. This is particularly true in economic policy. Both parties have become more protectionist and interventionist, impacting New Zealand’s economic interests.

The US economy has posted impressive growth figures, but many Americans remain unconvinced of their economic prosperity, influencing both parties’ policies. Trump's influence looms, with Democrats adopting some of his earlier positions to recapture lost working-class voters. Republicans, in turn, have veered even further towards economic nationalism.

Neither candidate is fiscally responsible.  Both are likely to expand the deficit and national debt, although Harris's tax-and-spend policies appear marginally less reckless. Trump's potential meddling with the Federal Reserve poses an additional threat to monetary policy stability, a concern that should not be taken lightly.

Bipartisan consensus on free trade has evaporated, with both parties embracing protectionism. Republican and Democratic administrations have blocked appointments to the World Trade Organisation's appellate body, weakening a global trade structure that benefits nations like New Zealand. Trump's promise for a blanket 10% or higher tariff on all imports poses a threat to open trade, making him a worse threat to New Zealand’s economic interests.

The contrast between the candidates is more pronounced in their international relations and security policies. Harris will likely continue the Biden administration's approach of building multilateral coalitions and reaffirming traditional alliances. Trump promises a more transactional foreign policy, potentially destabilising longstanding security arrangements.

Trump's isolationist rhetoric, if translated into policy, could pose significant risks to global democracy. His apparent affinity for autocrats, his ambivalence towards NATO and his lack of support for Ukraine have raised alarm bells in capitals across Europe and beyond. For New Zealand, which has long relied on a rules-based international order, an American retreat from global leadership would be deeply worrying.

On the critical issue of China, both candidates will retain trade restrictions in the interests of economic and technological competition, especially in strategic areas like computer chips.  Tensions over the South China Sea and Taiwan will need to be managed, while China’s support for Russia, Iran, and North Korea and its courting of the Global South will need to be countered. Harris would seek to ease tensions diplomatically, while Trump would be bombastic but open to deals. However, neither will want to be seen as soft on China or surrender global leadership. 

Both will expect friends and allies to stick with them. This presents a delicate balancing act for New Zealand, which has recently tilted more into the American camp despite China remaining our largest trading partner. It will be tricky under either Harris or Trump. Both candidates' protectionist stances mean neither is likely to offer increased trade access as an incentive for aligning with American strategic interests – but may threaten to punish those that do not.

New Zealand may need to increase defence spending to satisfy our security partners. Focusing on military interoperability with Australian forces might be a wise investment in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape.

New Zealand should continue pushing for trade liberalisation with like-minded countries. However, we should also keep trying to get a trade deal with the United States, even if the prospects of anything economically meaningful are unfavourable. While such an agreement might not have a lot of short-term benefits, it could better position New Zealand for the long term. China’s economy will face strong headwinds as its population ages and shrinks in the coming decades. America has much stronger demographics and it is much more productive, innovative and competitive.

Opportunistically, New Zealand could attract highly skilled tech workers affected by Trump’s anti-immigration policies. If the US makes life hard for skilled workers living there on an H-1B visa, New Zealand could offer those workers immediate residence to bolster its own tech sector. New Zealand could also do more to attract and welcome Americans wanting to escape the dysfunctional politics that has become a hallmark of their nation.

Regardless of the election outcome, New Zealand will face a more protectionist US, heightened geopolitical rivalry with China, and more threats to the international rules-based order.

The American election is consequential for New Zealand, not just in terms of the candidates' personalities but in the broader shifts in American economic and foreign policy. 

As the electoral drama unfolds, New Zealand must look beyond the headlines to prepare for a future that will demand resilience and adaptability in equal measure.

To read the full article on The Post website, click here.